Last week, four highly respected precious metals experts discussed the results of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)’s Annual Precious Metals Forecast Survey. Nicky Shiels of MKS PAMP, Ross Norman of Metals Daily, James Steel of HSBC, and Jonathan Butler of Mitsubishi took part in a 45-minute discussion that can be watched here.
Nicky Shiels looked back at the accuracy of previous LBMA forecast surveys. Ross Norman spoke about strong Chinese demand coming from both the official and retail sectors. James Steel noted that geopolitical risk is a driving factor for precious metals prices, and that the impacts of these events are often very difficult to predict in advance. Meanwhile, Mitsubishi’s Jonathan Butler highlighted the impact of the central bank interest rate cuts which could weigh on gold prices.
The survey of analysts’ forecasts found that on average the experts believed the average gold price would be 6.1% higher than 2023, silver was forecast to be 6.2% higher, and platinum was predicted to be 5.2% higher. All three metals may outperform UK inflation (the Consumer Price Index including occupiers’ housing costs or CPIH is currently at 4.2% and has broadly been falling since late 2022) and the best interest rates on easy-access savings accounts (currently 5.16% from Paragon Bank according to Money Saving Expert), if these forecasts prove to be accurate.
The price of precious metals can be volatile, and unlike holding cash in the bank, your capital is at risk when investing in metals as prices can drop below the price you paid.
Notes
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