In this article by the World Platinum Investment Council, we see how its latest palladium supply/demand forecast projects tightening deficits for 2024 and 2025, followed by surpluses from 2026 onwards.
The projected transition to a surplus is contingent on a significant increase to recycling; however, this outlook is predicted based on a number of existing challenges being resolved. Any delays to solving these could slow the pace of growth in recycling supply, resulting in deeper and more persistent deficits that would further postpone the surplus. This would in turn feed into value expectations and provide upward support for the palladium price, especially in the context of any potential short covering rallies.
In contrast to palladium, platinum has much stronger short- and long-term fundamentals. Increasing recycling supply is more of a palladium phenomenon, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% (2023–28), double that of platinum scrap. Platinum faces fewer downside demand risks and shares upside potential for market tightening.
Notes
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