Trends to Watch for the Remainder
of 2025 – A St Leger’s Day Review
Category: Invest
By
Checked by ,
Updated
There is an old adage among UK investors; ‘Sell in May and go away, come back on St Leger’s Day’. The saying refers to historic behaviour when wealthy Londoners would leave the capital for the summer and return to business in September, around the St Leger’s day races. This year, the races begin on 11th September 2025, so now could be an ideal time to review your portfolio.
If you’re reviewing your investments after a summer of all-time highs – both in terms of stock market indices and average temperatures¹ - you may have noticed recent record gold and silver prices. This article provides a summary of key events in several markets that may be contributing to current precious metals prices.
United States
There is growing concern about the independence of major US institutions such as the Federal Reserve and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from political influence. Earlier this year, President Trump dismissed the Commissioner of the BLS, claiming employment data had been ‘rigged’ in order to make him ‘look bad’.² Since some investors use jobs data to help gauge the health of the US economy, this move raised questions about the reliability of official statistics.
At the same time, President Trump has repeatedly criticised Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates. His recent decision to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, who played a role in setting rates, has further unsettled markets. Some investors fear these actions could signal an attempt to reshape the Federal Reserve with individuals more aligned to the President’s policy goals.
Why this matters for precious metals:
Doubts about the independence of US economic data and the Federal Reserve can undermine confidence in financial markets and the US Dollar. If investors believe interest rates or statistics are being influenced by politics, they may view gold and silver as safer stores of value. Political pressure on the Fed, especially toward lower interest rates, may also serve to weaken the Dollar and support precious metal prices.
France
Europe’s third-largest economy has faced persistent political instability since President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election in 2024. The outcome was a hung parliament, making it difficult for any government to push through reforms. Prime Minister Michel Barnier was forced out after opposition parties rejected his budget late last year, and his successor, François Bayrou, is now encountering the same challenges.
Bayrou’s proposed budget includes nearly €44 billion in spending cuts, which he argues are essential to stabilise France’s finances. However, resistance in parliament has triggered a no-confidence vote that could end his tenure. If he resigns, President Macron must either appoint a new Prime Minister or call fresh elections. With Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National currently leading in the polls, another election could be a significant political risk for Macron and may add further uncertainty for investors.
Why this matters for precious metals:
For gold and silver investors, this political deadlock matters because it adds to broader concerns about global debt and stability in the Eurozone. Prolonged uncertainty in France could impact the Euro, create uncertainty in bond markets, and push some investors towards traditional ‘safe haven’ assets like gold. A breakthrough on the budget could help stabilise the situation, potentially strengthening the Euro and reducing demand for ‘safe havens’.
United Kingdom
With Parliament back from its summer recess, attention is turning to the upcoming Autumn Budget. Investors are watching closely for potential measures from Chancellor Rachel Reeves aimed at supporting the UK economy. Last year’s Budget included changes to Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, and Employer’s National Insurance, alongside increases in state pensions, NHS funding, and defence spending. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected growth of 1.1% in 2024 and 2% in 2025, with government borrowing set to rise by an average of £32.3bn over five years.
Although major announcements are typically reserved for Budget day, press speculation has centred on the potential for new wealth or property taxes, adjustments to Capital Gains Tax, and possible reforms to ISAs and pensions. Changes announced in UK Budgets can significantly impact both the UK economy, and the investment strategies of individual investors, and so are scrutinised in detail by financial markets.
Why this matters for precious metals:
For investors in gold and silver, these discussions matter because any increase in taxation on savings, investments, or property could drive greater (or lower) interest in assets outside the traditional financial system. In periods of fiscal change or uncertainty, precious metals are often seen as a way to diversify and protect wealth, particularly as profits from selling UK bullion coins are exempt from Capital Gains Tax in the UK.
Japan
The Prime Minister of the world’s fourth-largest economy, Shigeru Ishiba of Japan, has announced his resignation after his party, the Liberal Democratic Party, lost its parliamentary majority in July’s elections. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and the size of the national debt have all been a major part of the national conversation in Japan this year, with the Prime Minister telling parliament that the fiscal situation is ‘is undoubtedly extremely poor, worse than Greece’s’ earlier this year, underscoring the seriousness of the debate.
When markets reopened on 8th September, the Nikkei 225 rose — though could be more related to the publication of positive economic data than the Prime Minister’s resignation. Attention now turns to the leadership race, where economic policy will be a key differentiator. One possible candidate for Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has previously been critical of the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates and has called for a large fiscal stimulus (i.e. government spending) to help boost the Japanese economy.³
Why this matters for precious metals:
Political uncertainty in the world’s fourth-largest economy can add to broader concerns in global markets, while the potential for looser fiscal and monetary policy could affect the value of the Yen, traditionally seen as a ‘safe-haven’ and something of a portfolio diversifier. For gold and silver investors, this may reinforce the appeal of precious metals as a hedge against currency weakness, sovereign debt risks and geopolitical/trade issues.
China
The latest meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Tianjin brought together President Xi Jinping, President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and other world leaders to discuss major geopolitical issues. President Xi announced plans for a new development bank to support SCO members such as Belarus, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, President Putin called for reforms to the IMF and World Bank, arguing ‘It is essential to end the use of finance as an instrument of neo-colonialism, which runs counter to the interests of the global majority’.⁴
Although the SCO has convened since 2001, the 2025 meeting has drawn heightened attention from Western press and policymakers, taking place against a backdrop of sanctions on Russia, ongoing US-China trade tensions, and recent military clashes involving India, China, and Pakistan.
Why this matters for precious metals:
Central banks have been major buyers of gold in recent years, with gold recently surpassing the Euro as the second-largest reserve asset after the US Dollar. Moves by SCO members to further reduce reliance on the Dollar (de-dollarisation) are likely to support gold demand. In addition, some members, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, have begun purchasing silver for strategic reserves, underlining the growing role of precious metals in state-controlled funds.⁵
India
India’s festive season is beginning, with Dussehra and Diwali arriving slightly earlier this year due to the alignment of the Gregorian and Hindu calendars. India is one of the world’s largest gold markets, with annual demand usually peaking in the final quarter of the year, coinciding with the festive period.⁶ The World Gold Council’s Research Head for India reported that this year ‘anecdotal reports from industry stakeholders suggest a positive outlook’.⁷
At the same time, India’s pension regulator is considering allowing funds within the National Pension System (NPS), which manages around $177bn in assets, to invest in gold ETFs.⁸ While India’s domestic gold ETF market remains relatively small at $7.7bn (compared to $66bn in the UK and $194bn in the US)⁹ , such a reform could significantly expand institutional participation in gold.
Why this matters for precious metals:
India remains one of the world’s largest sources of gold demand, and strong seasonal buying typically supports global prices. In addition, regulatory changes enabling pension funds to access gold ETFs could open a new channel of long-term investment demand, further underpinning the market.
Summary
As we move into the final quarter of 2025, global developments continue to highlight the value of precious metals within diversified portfolios. From political pressure on central banks, to fiscal deadlock, tax debates and trade tensions, investors face a backdrop of uncertainty. Against this backdrop, gold and silver have shone with GBP prices hitting all-time highs for both metals.
Whether these themes remain relevant throughout the closing months of the year, or whether new opportunities and challenges arise, St Leger’s Day 2025 presents a thought-provoking opportunity to review your portfolio.
¹ https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c1kz18d3wjro
² https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114955222046259464
³ https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15419901
⁶ https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-demand-by-country
⁷ https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2025/08/india-gold-market-update-festive-prep-begins
⁹ https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows
